Harare win could prove vital to either side

The match between Zimbabwe and India at Harare Sports Club could just turn out to be the most important of Pool A. Indian team coach John Wright described it as a must-win match for them. Zimbabwe are in pretty much the same position.

Before the tournament began, Zimbabwe on current form could expect to beat the two minnows, Namibia and Holland, and lose to the other four Test-playing countries in their group. Two factors have changed all that.

The first was that England were forced to forfeit their match with Zimbabwe. The second is that Zimbabwe are playing an Indian team now apparently in crisis, a team whose remarkably talented batsmen have equally remarkably lost confidence in their own ability.

If Zimbabwe manage to overcome their own frailties and beat India, they will be well placed to startle everybody, including themselves, and reach the Super Six stage of the tournament. They will have to beat Holland, which should not present a problem unless the weather intervenes. At least four victories are required under normal circumstances to reach the Super Sixes. Australia look certain to go through, while Pakistan also look likely candidates.

Four years ago Zimbabwe did just that, reaching the Super Six stage with victories over South Africa and India, while remarkably two teams who beat Zimbabwe, England and Sri Lanka, failed to make it. But four years back Zimbabwe were a much stronger team, with Neil Johnson, Murray Goodwin, Eddo Brandes and the two Strangs in their ranks - not to mention the then captain Alistair Campbell. During the past two years Zimbabwe have all too often failed to be competitive at international level, mainly due to a weak bowling attack.

The loser of this match will probably have to say goodbye to any realistic hopes of reaching the Super Sixes, especially as England are also in the equation, despite their points handicap. A victory, especially if India win it with a good batting performance or Zimbabwe win it with a good bowling performance, will be a great boost to confidence and will give the winners a major boost as they look towards the next stage.

Andy Blignaut has passed a fitness test and so the Zimbabwe bowling should be at full strength against India. But an attack of Streak - not the bowler he used to be - Blignaut, Hondo, Olonga and Murphy is no great shakes compared to most other Test-playing teams, whose batsmen might even consider them an opportunity to play themselves into form.

Yet if they all click together - and especially if Olonga should have one of his occasional days of brilliance - they might well trouble a nervous Indian batting line-up. With reportedly more grass left on the pitch than usual, it could be that Zimbabwe are actively preparing for such a possibility, and may even put India in to bat if they should win the toss.

India have not yet officially decided on their batting policy, although when asked they have said they are considering dropping captain Sourav Ganguly in the order, although Sachin Tendulkar is likely to stay at the top. They may well also play three seamers and drop either Anil Kumble or Harbhajan Singh, but at the moment are keeping their cards close to their chests.

In view of their greater potential, India must start the match as favourites. On their last visit to Zimbabwe two years ago, they comfortably won both the encounters with the hosts in a triangular tournament also involving West Indies. They have won five and lost two clashes between the sides in this country, so historically home advantage is not a significant ally as far as Zimbabwe are concerned.

The wild card is the weather. Cricket in February in Zimbabwe is always a risky business, and it often rains for most of the day in a normal rainy season. Even in the current drought, rain is very possible, especially in the afternoon. A draw would frustrate both teams and probably please England.

India's current strength is their bowling, Zimbabwe's their batting. Which will be stronger on the day, if the day is to be completed.