Back the boys from the West Country

Match preview
On paper it's a pretty even affair, although we are backing Gloucestershire to edge it. They will be keen to blood their new Australian fast bowler, Nathan Bracken and Craig Spearman is in thumping form, racking up 237 last weekend, and if he can stay in for the first 30 overs or so then Gloucestershire will surely be favourites. It almost goes without saying that we expect to see plenty of our punters betting high on his runs.

I'm particularly interested in how well Worcestershire will handle the pressure this year, and whether they are still bruised from their thrashing in last year's final. Their desire for revenge may be an asset - I've noticed that some other bookies are backing them to win on Saturday, but that's not where my money will be going. With Kabir Ali unavailable with a stomach injury, they will be counting on their Australian allrounder Andy Bichel, who's definitely one to watch. But he is only just coming back from a hip injury himself, and this lack of match practice could count against him.

This Saturday will be the last time that Steven Rhodes will keep wicket for Worcestershire, after 18 years with the gloves, and he's been given the captaincy for the final. A trophy in his last match would be the best retirement gift he could get, but he'll have to do a better job than earlier this week when they only managed to beat Scotland by one run (admittedly without their full squad). On the other hand, that win did almost guarantee Worcestershire promotion to Division One of the National League, so spirits will be high.

However, Gloucestershire are much more the form team recently and are certainly my tip. Lord's has been producing some very high scores all summer, and if it's a fine day then we can expect another run-fest. All in all I don't expect a repeat of last year, when Gloucestershire bundled Worcestershire out for 149 and knocked off the runs in just 20.3 overs, but a tense match that's likely to go to the wire.

What to bet on
Sporting have a wide range of markets to bet on, and are predicting that there will be 5 to 5.5 sixes. Depending on what you think of this spread, you bet high at 5.5 or low at 5...

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