Middle-order and middle-over questions haunt Pakistan at Asia Cup

The long bit between takeoff and landing on a transatlantic flight might be a scientific wonder, but also so boring you have to plug yourself into in-flight entertainment to find the resolve to get through it. As long as the pilots know what they're doing and the structural engineering of the aircraft is solid, this is the least eventful part of the flight, where everyone looks like they're going through the motions until it's time for the part people actually care about. If it emerges halfway through the plane isn't carrying enough fuel to get reach its destination, no one needs to get their thrills from the film offerings in the entertainment system; a lot of things, as it turns out, can feel extremely dull if they're done right.

Which brings us to ODI cricket's middle overs. T20 cricket cut them out altogether, but for about three months every four years just before a World Cup, the format feels like it matters again, and the principles of the middle overs don't really change. And while Pakistan have marketed themselves of late as arguably the most exciting bowling ODI side in the world, their exit from the Asia Cup at Sri Lanka's hands shone a light on the cracks they have tried to paper over.

In the 20th over of Sri Lanka's chase, Pakistan captain Babar Azam turned to Iftikhar Ahmed, a man with nine ODI wickets till then in his career, at a point in the game when wickets were Pakistan's only hope of getting back into it. The broadcast commentators made no attempt to conceal their disapproving surprise at that decision, when Iftikhar was serviceable without really threatening.

Towards the end of the innings, as the game reached its climax, the same broadcasters debated among themselves about whether it should be Shaheen Afridi or Iftikhar who bowled out their maximum quota of nine overs. It is often tempting to lay the blame at the Pakistan captain's feet, his strategic nous remaining a matter of open debate. But a pilot can only work with the machine he's been given. Sometimes, there really is more to Pakistan's ODI shortcomings than blaming Babar's captaincy.

Naseem Shah and Haris Rauf's absence has invariably weakened the options Pakistan have to remedy this, but Pakistan's middle-overs issues as seen at this Asia Cup predate their injuries. In every game this tournament apart from the Nepal match, Pakistan have struck upon a middle-overs phase where the bowling has looked both toothless and lacklustre, and momentum has switched hands. Against India in Round 1, Pakistan went wicketless for 23.2 overs between the 15th and the 38th, for 20 overs between the 10th and the 30th against Bangladesh, from the 18th over onwards in their second India game, and from the 14th to the 30th over versus Sri Lanka in the match that finally knocked them out.

Pakistan's specialist spin bowlers - Shadab Khan and Mohammad Nawaz - have combined for two wickets across this four-game period. Shadab has conceded 218 runs in 35 overs in this time, part of a larger trend where his unquestionable T20 brilliance has failed to translate into ODI quality. And as Sri Lanka themselves have shown over this week, good luck trying to win a tournament in that country with a spin attack in that form.

Sri Lanka is a daunting match-up for any side with middle-overs wicket-taking issues anyway. Since the 2019 World Cup, only Bangladesh and England have scored a smaller percentage of their runs through the top order than Sri Lanka among the World-Cup-going sides. The top three contribute just 43.58% of their runs. Charith Asalanka is Pakistan's statistical kryptonite; no one who bats number five or lower has scored more ODI runs in the two years since he made his debut. He, and Sri Lanka, are at their strongest at the precise point Pakistan are at their weakest - through that middle.

The lingering suspicion with Pakistan's ODI setup this World Cup cycle has been how tightly strung together it all is, and how little it might take for everything to unravel all at once. Pakistan have made their runs with a set top three, who have contributed 58.33% of all their runs since the previous World Cup. No other side comes close to using their top order as a crutch to this extent; second placed Afghanistan are well behind at 52.27%. At the same time they need their bottom three - Shaheen, Naseem and Haris - for most of their wickets, and Shadab Khan as the generational allrounder they believe he can still become. When it all works together, they have seven match-winners in their side, and it has worked often enough to help them rise to the top of the ODI rankings last month.

While all seemed well a week ago, the unravelling has happened just as quickly. Fakhar Zaman's run-scoring has always carried a feast or famine vibe, so a dry spell - even an extended one like this - isn't intrinsically alarming. But not only does he average 19 in his past ten innings, the explosive power that made him so feared also appears to have vanished, with his strike rate during this period plummeting to 65.51 and failing to hit 90 in any of those innings. Had Imam-ul-Haq not pulled out late with a niggle, Fakhar was slated to be dropped for the winner-takes-all game against Sri Lanka. As he scratched around for four off 11 balls, one could see why. Babar, too (the Nepal game excluded), has had an indifferent Asia Cup, though that is more likely a statistical blip.

Two of the three bowlers are now injured, with Babar suggesting Naseem is in a race against time to be fit for the start of the World Cup. Shaheen didn't quite sparkle in the final two games like he did in the first three, and Shadab serving as Pakistan's primary spin bowler going into the World Cup in this form is a concern. And while Mohammad Rizwan and Iftikhar have begun to translate their T20 prowess into ODI middle-order stability, it is too little too late to start divesting from top-order reliance.

There are enough mitigating factors to make drawing conclusions from this Asia Cup either way particularly challenging, not least because Pakistan have racked up more air miles than this tournament has had rain delays. But for a side that celebrated the No. 1 ranking fewer than three weeks ago, this is a good reminder that no one's quite as invincible as they might feel in ODI cricket.

This strange combination of half a dozen matchwinners and nearly as many journeymen through the middle had been held together by the quality at both ends, but as the extremities weakened this Asia Cup, the soft underbelly showed. Pakistan have about a fortnight to put it all back again exactly as it was, because there's simply no time to effectively address the issues running through the middle anymore. But Pakistan have made surprising from positions of adversity a national cricketing identity, so every time we get to the middle overs of a Pakistan game at the World Cup, boring is the last thing it's likely to be.