Are Sky calling Nimbus's bluff?

A report in today's Times claims that BSkyB will secure the rights to England's tour of India because no other interested party has the platform to make outbidding it viable.

A number of sources have claimed in the last few days that Nimbus, who paid $612 million to the India board last week for all TV, radio and internet rights for four years, are desperately attempting to drive a bidding war. Media analysts suspect that Nimbus has paid well over the going rate and are desperate to recoup as much as they can as soon as they can.

Earlier this week Zee TV and Sony Asia were being touted as likely bidders. Yesterday, the name of Setanta, a fringe pay-per-view channel, was thrown into the pot. "I don't see how the proposed deal with Setanta could be viable," one Indian TV executive told the Times. Another said: "Nimbus's problem is that Sky are the only ones who can buy it, unless you do the highly risky pay-per-view deal. Probably the only ones that can do it are Setanta ... but I don't think Setanta are even in the running."

The issue now appears simple. Do Sky want the rights enough to pay over the odds, or are they willing to call Nimbus's bluff? Few doubt that the price being asked is too high, but Sky, whose much debated four-year deal for exclusive rights to all live cricket in England starts in May, are desperate to avoid the PR embarrassment of missing out on such a high-profile series.

If Sky do walk away, then Nimbus could be faced with losing it all, as no one else is in a position to pay more. Were any of the other parties mentioned somehow to outbid Sky, they would take a massive loss on the deal as their audiences are a fraction of BSkyB's and the sums they would need to charge would be considerable. Estimates were that Setanta would have to price a subscription to the series at well over £100 ($170) and the UK has no real history of pay-per-view working outside very specialist fields.

Sky's original offer of around $8.7 million was rejected last weekend and a Nimbus executive claimed that talks were taking place with other broadcasters. That is increasingly looking like a bluff and Sky might be about to call it.

One insider told the Times that Nimbus were the ones in trouble. "[It is ] in a dilemma because all the broadcasters put in respective bids of $450, $500, $550 million and these guys have gone well over $600 million. They are not a broadcaster, so they are going to have to go to one of the broadcasters. All the broadcasters could easily turn round and say, `sod you, we've done our figures, there's no way we're paying that.' It 's a mess. This is the big test for Indian cricket because I think this deal will determine whether Indian cricket can sustain this kind of money and my feeling is I don't think it can."