India cannot afford to be complacent

Going through the list of teams fancied by the bookies to win the ICC Champions Trophy, I was slightly taken aback to see India third in the list. They are ranked just behind prohibitive favourites Australia and South Africa in the list of those fancied to take the trophy - and ahead of hosts Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and well ahead of England, New Zealand, West Indies and Zimbabwe.

One more major factor has to be kept in mind while analysing India's chances and that is that they are in a group in which no team is a pushover. In each of the three other pools, there is at least one team that can be rated as being there just to fill the numbers. India has England and Zimbabwe in their group and neither of them can be regarded as no-hopers.

Capable as the Indian team undoubtedly is, I wish I could share the optimism of the bookies. Evidently, the fine showing in England capped by the triumph in the NatWest series has influenced their choice somewhat. But while the display in the NatWest competition was really commendable, especially the manner in which the Indians won the title clash against England, it certainly does not constitute a major triumph.

Come to think of it, when did India last notch up a major title victory? Not one really, since the outstanding double of the World Cup and the World Championship of Cricket triumphs, almost two decades ago.

The Indian team frequently acquires this irritating habit of promising more than they deliver, of not playing up to potential, of faltering at the final hurdle. Like they did in the last Champions Trophy at Nairobi when after successive victories over Australia and South Africa, they went down to New Zealand in the final. It is more probable, then, that India's overall performance in the tournament might have something to do with the bookies line of thinking, for in the inaugural year of the competition in 1998, India defeated Australia before losing to West Indies in the penultimate round.

Sure, on potential, the Indian team has it in them to win the Champions Trophy ­ and other limited-overs competitions. With arguably the best batting line-up in the world, including unarguably the best player in the game today, the Indians should be making mountains of runs. Unfortunately, this is not always the case.

And, then, there is the problem with the bowling. Sure, the weakness in this department may not be as palpable on the sub-continent as when it is exposed in England, Australia, South Africa or the West Indies. Again the paucity may not be as pronounced in the limited-overs game as it is in Test cricket. But there is no way one can argue that it is a strong attack. Also perennial problems like poor fielding and poor running between wickets are always there, though, of late, thanks to the induction of youth, there has admittedly been some improvement.

One more major factor has to be kept in mind while analysing India's chances and that is that they are in a group in which no team is a pushover. In each of the three other pools, there is at least one team that can be rated as being there just to fill the numbers. India has England and Zimbabwe in their group and neither of them can be regarded as no-hopers.

In other groups, it is always going to be more or less a straight fight between Australia and New Zealand, West Indies and South Africa and Sri Lanka and Pakistan (which the hosts have already won) to enter the semifinals. In Pool two, which is India's group, all three teams have a realistic chance of qualifying for the penultimate round.

One victory does not guarantee them a place in the knock-out stage while one defeat does not mean that the team is knocked out. It certainly is the most intriguing group in the competition. On present form, there is no reason why India should not beat England and Zimbabwe, particularly on sub-continent pitches. But one-day cricket is all about having one good game or one bad game on the day. India will have to be wary and cannot afford to be complacent on the basis of their good record against both the countries at home, or in conditions very close to home.