The odds are stacked against the Indians

As the Indian team takes off for England to play first a triseries and then stay on for four Test matches, it must be said that on both past record and present form, the odds are stacked against them.

Let's take the present form factor first. The manner in which England have performed in the three-Test series against Sri Lanka must be rated as commendable. Not only did they win the series with more than a degree of comfort, but they also showed that they have it in them to repeat the trick against India.

In particular, the way in which the batsmen handled Muthiah Muralitharan, who it must be remembered turned the batting inside out with a haul of 16 wickets at the Oval four years ago, was exemplary. The fact that in three successive innings, the England batsmen ran up totals of 500 plus - for the first time in the 125-year history of Test cricket - should not only boost their confidence but also give the Indian bowlers plenty to think about.

And then there is the past record to think about. In 41 Tests in England, India has won only three and lost 22. Overall, this is a pretty woeful record, even after taking into account the improvement in the last 30 years during which India has won all the three Tests, besides two series triumphs in 1971 and 1986.

Indian players have almost always floundered in England where wicket and weather conditions have generally proved to be alien. The pitches might not be in the category of Perth or Kingston but they certainly are faster and bouncier than those in India. And then the heavy atmosphere that is conducive to swing and seam bowling has created problems galore for the Indians.

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Thanks to the shining example provided by Sunil Gavaskar, Indian batsmen over the years have shown improvement in tackling the moving ball while the bowlers, inspired by Kapil Dev, have learnt to make optimum use of the helpful conditions. But the fact remains that even with such champions, India has generally been at the receiving end in England. This has been the case even when the home side has been anything but formidable.

The last tour in 1996 was a case in point. England were going through a lean period and yet India lost the three Test series 1-0. It's the same story in one-day games. England have generally emerged triumphant and the only saving grace from India's point of view was the victory in both the matches played in 1990.

The present England squad, while certainly not being fragile, has certain obvious weaknesses. But given India's abysmal overseas record - more so in England even the most diehard of Indian cricket supporters would not expect their team to win either the tri-series, involving England and Sri Lanka, or the Test series. Yes, there will be a couple of individual feats but one just can't see anything beyond that in the crystal ball.

The Indian teams selected for the coming tour are probably the strongest that could have been picked. On the face of it, the two squads are nicely balanced. There is plenty of batting right down the order and in the Test side the stonewallers and swashbucklers are in the right proportion.

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The seam bowling is in good hands and in Anil Kumble and Harbhajan Singh the tourists have two of the leading spin bowlers in the game today. The one all-pervading worrying factor, however, is India's awful overseas record. Indeed, the last time India won a Test series away from the sub-continent was in England in 1986.

While the first series triumph in 1971 cannot be matched from the historic viewpoint, in my book the victory 15 years later was probably a greater achievement. For one thing, the margin was clear-cut and not narrow as it was in 1971. And secondly, it was achieved in the first half of the English summer when conditions are increasingly alien for the tourists.

Of course, against this, it must also be added that in 1986, England's standing in world cricket could not be compared to the 1971 squad which was just about the best in the world.

This time too the Indians will enjoy the relative comfort of touring in the second half of the summer. And at the moment, England and India are both almost bunched together in the middle in the Test and one-day ratings. But then these are the only crumbs of comfort for the tourists. All things considered, England should start favourites for the Test series.

As far as the tri-series is concerned, the bookies will probably give the shortest odds on an England - Sri Lanka final. It is up to the Indians to make nonsense of such predictions. Will they?