Australia ahead by a nose in the final analysis (20 June 1999)

20 June 1999

Australia ahead by a nose in the final analysis

The Electronic Telegraph

Scyld Berry: Who do we think will win the World Cup final?

Mike Atherton: I hope Wasim lifts the trophy for personal, Lancashire, reasons but I think Australia will because they're more battle-hardened than Pakistan. At the start they looked poor until they picked the right team with Tom Moody at seven and Paul Reiffel at eight and gave Glenn McGrath the new ball.

Barry Richards: The consistency of Australia appeals to me but I think it will be a very close call.

Angus Fraser: Australia, because they're guaranteed to put in a certain level of performance and you don't know what Pakistan will do.

Ian Chappell: I think the two most attacking sides have got to the final, and Australia have a problem when someone attacks them. That's why Sachin Tendulkar has been so successful against Australia - they get angry and stop thinking. Pakistan have got it in them to attack Australia.

Angus Fraser: I want to see another Saeed Anwar hundred.

Barry Richards: (With roguish irony): He's got to work on his timing. (General laughter).

Scyld Berry: Isn't it a disadvantage for Australia that they had such a draining semi-final so recently? In the last World Cup it was the same when they had their semi-final on a Thursday, defending 207 against West Indies, and had little left in the tank for the final in Lahore on the Sunday.

Ian Chappell: I asked Steve Waugh about that, and he said they weren't prepared for Lahore because they didn't know about the dew. But, yes, I saw it happen in '96 and it bothers me it will happen again. You've only got so much petrol in the tank and can only dodge so many bullets. The thing is, Australia will go down fighting and they've got enough good batsmen for somebody to make some runs.

Mike Atherton: And two bowlers who could take four wickets in an innings.

Barry Richards: Yes, they've got Shane Warne and McGrath, but I still think Australia will struggle if Pakistan's batting gets going.

Ian Chappell: The combination's the thing. At the start Australia had Damien Fleming and Adam Dale in the team so they had to take the new ball, which meant McGrath had to go No 3.

Mike Atherton: They've been a different team since McGrath took the new ball - and I backed them at 9-1 before their Old Trafford match against West Indies when they had to win or were out.

Ian Chappell: They still have their biggest trouble when a team attacks them. Pakistan scored 145 off their last 15 overs against Australia at Headingley.

Mike Atherton: It's a different team now. McGrath didn't take the new ball in that game and Damien Martyn played ahead of Moody.

Ian Chappell: McGrath still ended up at the top of the hospitality suites at midwicket.

Barry Richards: Reiffel's got no change of pace and has lost that zip.

Angus Fraser: To me he looks as if he's lost a bit of weight and had a few injuries.

Scyld Berry: Will Australia's lack of specialist opening batsmen tell against them against such a fine attack as Pakistan's?

Barry Richards: Adam Gilchrist goes hard at every ball. You've got to bowl round the wicket at him, a bit like Gary Kirsten. If you give him width, he'll murder you. He got a few against South Africa at Edgbaston because Allan Donald and Shaun Pollock hate going round the wicket.

Ian Chappell: Gilchrist has had 65 digs in one-day internationals and been bowled 16 times. But to me his poor form is not a problem. Mark Waugh is the key for Australia - if he makes a decent score, Australia will set a target.

Barry Richards: The other one is Darren Lehmann. He's a good player but he's in a run where every time a good ball comes along he nicks it. If he comes in early at 25 for two he's vulnerable.

Ian Chappell: With Darren there's no compromise. He'll play the same way no matter what the score.

Mike Atherton: He seems to lift his head up at times. (A rare sight follows of Atherton lifting his head while he plays a shot, though only for demonstration purposes.)

Scyld Berry: Wouldn't Australia's top order be stronger if they'd got Michael Slater or Greg Blewett?

Mike Atherton: I think Slater's a fantastic player.

Barry Richards: I would've been tempted to go with Slater.

Angus Fraser: I haven't seen Steve Waugh bat like this before in one-day games and going over the top. At Edgbaston he hit Lance Klusener back over his head twice.

Barry Richards: He always works out which are the shortest boundaries.

Scyld Berry: I think we all agree that Australia are better chasers than Pakistan. But why are Australia so much better at chasing targets in one-day cricket than they are in Test matches?

Ian Chappell: (Pause): Because your plan is made for you in one-day cricket. And they've tended to bat slowly and let the tension build up when they've chased targets in Test cricket.

Mike Atherton: It's not the big targets which Australia have had a problem with in Test cricket, it's those 150 scores.

Ian Chappell: Most of the panic nowadays occurs when teams are batting, in the running between wickets or if someone hits the ball in the air. The fielding is so good now that you don't see many fielding teams cave in like you used to.

Barry Richards: Michael Bevan was unbelievable on the cover boundary at Edgbaston.

Mike Atherton: If I were captain I'd want to put Pakistan under pressure by making them bat second. Their bowling's got everything. Captains were suckered into bowling first early in this tournament, but the white ball is going to move around all day.

Ian Chappell: Judging by the only World Cup final I played in, it's got to be easier to get a reasonable total on board then field second. The biggest danger to Pakistan is that they'll have four run-outs. When I played in 1975 we had five!

Barry Richards: Pakistan have got to work on those extras.

Ian Chappell: They won't. If you go back to '92, Imran Khan told Wasim to forget the no-balls and wides and get the wickets and you can bet your bottom dollar he'll be giving the same instructions to Shoaib.

Angus Fraser: Like that bouncer Shoaib bowled to Nathan Astle in the Old Trafford semi-final which went for five no-balls.

Ian Chappell: And look what happened two balls later to Nathan Astle.

Barry Richards: Still, 40 extras every time . . .

Ian Chappell: Sure, it could cost you the game, but that's the way they play. It's no good me telling you (to Richards) to go out and bat like Boycott.

Angus Fraser: Pakistan are still the best exponents of reverse-swing, even in damp conditions in April, and it should reverse at Lord's. Depending on overhead conditions, it could reverse quite early.

Mike Atherton: But they are not the best in the world when it comes to seam bowling. I've seen Wasim bowling on green wickets at Old Trafford and he's not one who likes to put six balls in the same place when it's doing a bit.

Scyld Berry: What about the tournament as a whole? A modest success?

Angus Fraser: I believe it's been very successful, the way crowds have responded when India and Pakistan have been playing. The atmosphere when we played India at Edgbaston was the best I've experienced in this country and the cricket has been excellent.

Mike Atherton: You're trying to get a job with the ECB. (Laughter.)

Barry Richards: But where have the England supporters been?

Ian Chappell: It's been a good tournament but not for English cricket. Just check on the TV ratings. The figures for India against England at Edgbaston, I think you'll find, were the same for India against Pakistan. That tells you all you need to know about who's been watching in this country.

Scyld Berry: England's performance?

Ian Chappell: (Drily): No great surprise.

Barry Richards: They tried to manufacture all-rounders they hadn't got. England would have been far better off with five specialist bowlers. Andrew Flintoff's not an all-rounder, or take Adam Hollioake - any good batsman is going to milk him for 70 or 80.

Ian Chappell: Everyone said conditions would suit England but I never believed that. Cricketers from other countries are in England pretty regularly, and you had three players in your squad who weren't international cricketers.

Mike Atherton: When I was captain we lost one home international in four years. Recent history says we should have been strong.

Ian Chappell: There's not a history in this England side of winning tough matches. Mike can say they have won some, but overall they haven't won the tough matches.

Barry Richards: And the selectors must know the cupboard is bare.

Source :: The Electronic Telegraph